It was eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
